Even though it will feel warm outside compared to recent cold that we have had, do not let that fool you. The models have consistently been showing a major pattern change after December 9th. It is not clear if this will just be cold air or there will be some kind of winter storm. If there is a winter storm, it could be snow for the Midwest into New England or even across the Mid Atlantic. But I am not convinced that there will be any snow across the South.
This could even be some kind of low pressure system that brings mainly rain to many locations. I am thinking it is a bit early in the season for a major winter storm.
There is a deep trough at 500mb, which suggest storminess and below normal temperatures.
This is something to watch, and if there is any take-home message, it would be that any warmth that we experience in the near future will not last long. After or around the 9th is when the much colder air moves in.
Any talks of snow are uncertain at this point, so we are not calling for any type of mass hysteria. All we know is that the pattern will turn cold. I’m not really that impressed with all the warmer air over Canada. That is where we would get our Arctic outbreaks from.
I would be more gung-ho about snow and cold if that ridge was not positioned the way it was over the West Coast. Any cold air from the Arctic would be cut off by this ridge. So therefore, going conservative as of now. Also this time of year, and early December, is not notorious for major snowstorms.
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-Mike G.
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