Coastal Low Likely This Weekend for the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast


This is kind of unusual for late July, but we will see a coastal low, and possibly a nor’easter this weekend. Two pieces of upper-level energy will merge over the East Coast, and will help spin up an area of surface low pressure just off the Delmarva on early Saturday. The biggest threat from this storm system will be heavy rain, and some wind. Mainly coastal areas will see the wind. The latest 00Z GFS has the low over the Chesapeake Bay by 8am on Saturday. Rain could be falling from Charlotte to Providence.

What about the Euro you might ask? Well, the Euro actually has a more impressive version of the storm, a 990mb low still centered over the Chesapeake. Forecasters are now talking about this since there is agreement among the world’s most powerful forecast models.

Here is also the Euro at 8am on Saturday:

Should we also mention the Canadian model? Sure! Why not! It has the center of low pressure slightly more south than the other two solutions above. This would mean much heavier rain for Virginia if this were to be true. But if you combine all three, there will be some kind of storms somewhere over the Chesapeake by 8am Saturday.

Here is the Canadian for 8am Saturday:

Now what about the total forecast rain amounts? The GFS has the heaviest rain along the PA/MD border by Monday. New Jersey, NYC, and the Delmarva are also included with the heavy rain.

Likewise, here is the Canadian rainfall totals through late Saturday. Not surprisingly, the highest totals are a bit further south.

Stay tuned as we will be covering this storm! Will will also be issuing updates to our clients. Sign up on here on the site to become one! Also we are in the process of creating a spotter group where you can easily post pics and questions, and updates, so keep an eye out for that!

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Author: Michael Griffith

I have had a passion for the weather since a very young age and am a degreed meteorologist. I have a Bachelor of Science from Penn State University and a Master's from Plymouth State University. If you ever see me out and about in the Charlotte, NC area, be sure to say hi!