While we are now beginning to enter what is considered the heart of the climotological tropical season, we find that the Atlantic is in a state of considerable disarray. With a high amount of Saharan dust being spread from Africa into the heart of the Atlantic waters, the dryer air is choking out of lot of tropical activity that attempts to develop. This is the case with our latest tropical item of interest; Invest 96-L. Our GOES satellite imagery illustrates the rather discombobulated current state of this wave:
While we originally had more of a concern for this system for the very slight chance that it would eventually impact the Southeast in some way, that concern is fading. The National Hurricane Center has already lowered chances of tropical development from 70% down to 40%, and that seems fairly reasonable considering that Saharan dust and dry air continues to limit convection, and thus continues the strain with Invest 96-L. Should there be any development, it will likely be well east of the Leeward Islands into potentially a mere tropical depression. Furthermore, should it even develop, a re-curvature is likely which will send this tropical system well away from the East Coast. Why is that? Check out this trough diving into the Eastern US next weekend:
A trough of that magnitude, axis , and timing will likely force any kind of developed cyclone well out to sea away from the East Coast, should anything develop.
We do not anticipate any significant changes and an impact to the Southeast US is unlikely at this time. Stay tuned and we will keep you updated of any noteworthy changes to the forecast here on the website, as well as Facebook and Twitter.
Have a great weekend.
Carolina Weather Authority