Long-Range Climate Outlook 2-7-2017

Long-Range Climate Outlook, What We Can Expect Through the End of Winter 2017
Mike Griffith РMeteorologist 

After a snowstorm in the Northeast this week, temperatures momentarily plummet behind the system, but then a pronounced warming trend occurs through the 12th and Valentine’s Day. There is a potential East Coast storm around the 17th according to the ensembles, but of course given how far out this forecast is, the details are unclear. But we will likely trend on the warm side of things given the recent above normal temperatures.


Click/touch any image for larger version.

GEFS showing pronounced warming trend through Valentine’s Day.


GEFS showing eastern trough and potential storm system around the 17th.

With a lot of warm air up in Canada, which is where the U.S. gets it’s cold air from, I would say that it is not going to be entirely cold through the end of February. There could be one or two medium-strength snowstorms, however I don’t expect the snow to last too long, in fact it would melt. This is only if we can get cold enough to have snow in the first place.

CFS weeklies showing a warm end to February.

The CFS weeklies show the eastern US and even eastern Canada getting torched through the end of February. Temperature anomalies are expected to be above-average. This is from the 21st through the 28th. This pattern would not be favorable for persistent snow and cold. Maybe only 1 or 2 “hit and run” storms through the end of February.

In fact, through the end of February and into early March, the CFS weeklies are saying that we will be well above-average temperature-wise at least through March 6th. All that red is warm for much of the eastern US.

CFS weeklies showing an above-normal end to February and into early March.


The CFS monthly indicates that overall, we will also be well above-normal through the month of March. This has been consistent with the CFS model runs since February 1st. Not much has changed in model agreement which means that there is a high likelihood of above-normal temperatures. Overall we are looking at a warm end to winter and should not expect many big snows! Also should not expect extended cold! Also, I was seeing signs of a hot summer with a neutral ENSO and a weak El Nino beginning again. Stay tuned to this blog and subscribe, and comment below.


Temperature forecast for March 2017




Author: Michael Griffith

I have had a passion for the weather since a very young age and am a degreed meteorologist. I have a Bachelor of Science from Penn State University and a Master's from Plymouth State University. If you ever see me out and about in the Charlotte, NC area, be sure to say hi!

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