The medium range models and Ensembles continue to show the cold to return with a vengeance along the east coast the last couple of days of January and as we head into February. Here’s a look at the GEFS ensembles 500mb and temperature compared to normal around the last week of the month
The MJO, currently in phase 1 will work its way back into the circle of death (has no effect on the pattern) and from there begin to make its way into phases 7 and 8 to begin the month of February.
The below image is a composite of what phase 7 typically looks like in the month of February and as you can see, it looks very similar to the GEFS temperature anomalies up top!.
Here’s a composite of what phase 8 looks like during the month of February
Confidence continues to grow on a colder pattern heading for the east coast to start the month of February and could possibly stick around for a bit. The only downfalls are the teleconnections and how they do not support the idea of a storm storm system to effect the east coast just yet. These teleconnections vary from run to run and being outside of the 2 week time frame, i’m more than certain these will change and become more accurate as we close out the month.