Major Pattern Shift Around Nov 18th


If there was ever an extreme temperature flip coming this month, it would be around the 18th. We will be much warmer than average for the first half of November, and it will even feel like September at times, especially in the South. Warm, mild days are ahead for November.

However, the GEFS ensembles are hinting at an upper-level trough over the eastern US around the 18th. This would mean much colder temperatures than average!

GEFS ensembles showing an upper trough around the 16th. Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.


GEFS trough around the 18th.


Precipitation amounts out west will still be much below normal, but won’t be much higher in the East through the 18th. We are looking at amounts of near an inch of liquid in the East and maybe only a 0.10 or 0.25 of an inch out West. Much of the precipitation will likely come with the pattern shift around the 18th.

GEFS precipitation amounts through Nov 16. Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.




Author: Michael Griffith

I have had a passion for the weather since a very young age and am a degreed meteorologist. I have a Bachelor of Science from Penn State University and a Master's from Plymouth State University. If you ever see me out and about in the Charlotte, NC area, be sure to say hi!

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