NHC and Models Continue to Indicate Tropical Trouble

The NHC has now increased their probability to 50% of formation with the tropical wave currently in the Atlantic. This wave is forecast to continue it’s westward journey across the Atlantic. The question is, what will it do when it gets closer to land?

The operational GFS model has the tropical system as a tropical storms off the coast around the 10th of this month. It then has the storm taking a northward turn away from land. Let’s hope this is the case.

GFS showing the storm off the coast around the 13th. Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.

However, the cause for concern is the GEFS ensembles, have different areas of low pressure. This means that any of these areas of low pressure could be the center of this tropical system. The GEFS has a split in the tracks, one of which would be a direct hit on Miami. It all depends on what the high pressure system over the Atlantic does. If it moves west, look out. If it drifts east, then the storm will likely head out to sea.

Most of the ensemble solutions have it with the northward turn out to sea, so that’s good!

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GEFS model showing the possible centers of the storm around the 13th. Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.

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Author: Michael Griffith

I have had a passion for the weather since a very young age and am a degreed meteorologist. I have a Bachelor of Science from Penn State University and a Master's from Plymouth State University. If you ever see me out and about in the Charlotte, NC area, be sure to say hi!