A rare November snow could be setting its sights on parts of the southern mountains and into the Northeast. But who will see what and how much? It is kind of unusual to get a winter storm before winter even begins.
The timing is Thursday afternoon. That is, if anything develops at all. The mountains are the most likely place to see frozen precipitation, such as the mountains of NC and VA. We are not seeing any signs of frozen precip for the mountains of GA but stay alert just in case. The rest of SC, NC, and VA will see all rain.
Here’s the latest GFS and this is NOT A FORECAST, and please keep in mind that sleet and freezing rain will cut these totals in HALF or more.
The NAM futurecast radar puts down sleet and freezing rain across portions of WV and much of northern VA. This may not last long due to a changeover to rain which would melt everything. Notice this future radar does have frozen precip in the NC mountains, so stay alert there.
As we head into the afternoon on Thursday, Philly and the suburbs could see and onset of sleet. However, notice how everything is rain that is pushing up from the south. This indicates warmer air and thus a changeover to all rain.
There could be a brief period of snow as colder air moves in and the storm pulls away Thursday night. However, amounts will vary and will not be that heavy across southeast PA. But in the PA mountains, amounts could be much higher, perhaps 4-6″.
After careful review, here are our final thoughts for Thursday-Friday’s storm. Many in the Southeast will see plain rain. In the mountains, there will be some frozen precip, but it should change to all rain late Thursday. Now it gets tricky, with southeast PA, Philly and NYC, where they could see some sleet at the start and maybe even some flakes, but then everything changes over to rain. The best place to see snow will be in the PA mountains, but even there sleet could mix in which would reduce totals.
Amounts in a rare early storm are hard to pin down, so amounts will vary across the board!