After Category 4 Hurricane Laura left a swath of devastation in Louisiana, the last thing some want to hear is that the tropics will remain active this week. As we head into the busiest month of the year of Hurricane Season, the map certainly looks like we could see more activity. There are a few threats, some close to home, some far away, and some that should not impact the US. However these threats are not significant or immediate.
Our first area of interest will be just off the East Coast this week, which currently has a 70% chance of development over the next 5 days. This could steal the name Nana which is our next name on the list. However, the 80 % chance of development in the Caribbean could gain the name Nana first, or Omar. Two waves exiting the coast of Africa have a 30% and 20% shot at becoming something over the next 5 days.
Currently, there is no immediate risk to the US coastline. Anything that could happen is weeks away, if anything. However are are expecting an uptick in this timeframe. The peak of Atlantic Hurricane Season is in September.
As we watch for any concerns down the road, we can look at the ensembles. We could be looking at some kind of tropical disturbance in the South Atlantic around September 7th. However the strength of the potential system is not known and it is far too soon to determine what will happen.
The GEFS ensembles show possible locations of the center of low pressure around the 7th. This system could either go out to sea or it could track toward the US Mainland. We will have to wait and see.
Latest video discussing tropical threats from Meteorologist Joshua Nagelberg:
As we have shown the potential systems to watch, we also stress the fact that there is currently no credible tropical threat to the US. There could be some dangerous rip currents off the East Coast this week if something forms, and it is not advisable to go into the water.
Otherwise enjoy the beaches!
-CWA
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