It’s not a given, but there are some indications of a pattern change back to “Winter” just after New Year’s. Does this mean brutal cold? Not necessarily, but we are seeing a change to a more active storm track compared to the rest of December. We are expecting average to above average temps to round out the month.
While snow requires a perfect matchup between cold from the north and a storm track from the west or out of the Gulf, we are seeing mainly storminess for now and not so much any extreme cold. However, below normal temperatures could make an appearance once again on our around January 3rd (image below).
It doesn’t take extreme cold to get snow, in fact, you don’t want that. It can still snow with an active storm track, and low pressure systems can generate their own cold. In the image above, the below normal temps could be from storm systems sliding “underneath” the heat dome in Canada.
This could be a model trend that we will have to watch heading into January. The GEFS even has us as average heading into the 3rd. Again, this is MUCH more favorable for any type of wintry weather than above normal temps.
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