Future Hurricane Ian Poised to Strike Florida, Possible Carolina Coast Impacts

Tropical Depression 9 is expected to become Tropical Storm Ian next week, and eventually Hurricane Ian. Currently this storm is still in the early stages of formation, so there will be some exact track uncertainty. However, the Euro, which has been a very consistent model, is showing a southwest Florida strike on Tuesday night into Wednesday next week.

This storm is forecasted to become major hurricane, which is a Category 3 or higher, by definition.

Below is the official NHC forecast and cone of uncertainty, where the storm is expected to track.

Notice how Tampa is almost in the middle of the cone. But that does not mean the storm won’t strike to the south.

Now the biggest question is, what are the Carolina impacts? We’ve received some questions if our coasts will be affected. That is still unclear, as the exact track of Ian will determine coastal impacts, or even perhaps inland.

There is still a wide spread in the ensembles shown above, which indicates the storm could track inland, out to sea, or right up the Southeast Coast. The speed it moves will be key, if Ian moves across Florida quickly, and then out over open water, then there is a chance for coastal impacts here. Those would be coastal flooding, high winds, and torrential rains. It is not out of the question for this storm to hit somewhere in the Carolinas as a tropical storm or category 1 hurricane.

However this storm could go out to sea after it hits Florida, or could move inland and up our way causing extreme flooding and even rotating thunderstorms. Either way, we should watch just in case.

We will know more about this perhaps later this weekend or early next week. However, residents should follow all NHC safety advisories and consult their local NWS for all life and property saving information.

Be sure to follow along with our Models Page! >>> carolinawxauthority.com/models

Author: Michael Griffith

I have had a passion for the weather since a very young age and am a degreed meteorologist. I have a Bachelor of Science from Penn State University and a Master's from Plymouth State University. If you ever see me out and about in the Charlotte, NC area, be sure to say hi!