Most models now agree that much of Virginia will see snow tonight and into early tomorrow morning! This is not expected to be a widespread major event, but mainly a fresh coating of “flakes” to get you into the holiday spirit. It will be perfect for those who just want it to look nice long enough before it melts and won’t be a long-standing issue. More inland locations will see the highest amounts, and especially those in the VA and NC mountains.
The Canadian hi-resolution short-range model usually does well with these events, and seems to be bullish so far. This is a very possible scenario below especially if banding sets up before the storm exits out to sea. However, for locations south and east, and especially down into NC, we think that will be all rain as it will be too warm.
The Euro is a bit more conservative, and could be realistic, however we usually don’t want to go off one single model. Combining the Euro with the RGEM above gives us a decent blend of what could end up happening. The trend to notice with this model is higher amounts across central and western VA.
The short-range ensemble forecast or SREF shows flakes for most of VA, but again shows the highest amounts in central VA and along the mountains. So we can say that is possible that anyone across VA can see flakes tonight into early AM tomorrow, but the most likely areas are central and western VA.
It now looks like the snow will begin just before sunrise Monday as rain changes over to snow. This would be between 5 and 7 am. Colder air will wrap in and it will start snowing around this time, perhaps sooner and perhaps later. The timing with these events is tricky. Below is the futurecast radar for 6 am Monday:
This will be heavy wet snow since it will not be that cold, and the rain and snow line will be close together, thus causing big fat wet flakes. By 9am most of the snow will push east, and will end from west to east:
Based on the above analysis and models, here is our official snow map for VA and the VA/NC mountains! Everyone who will get some, enjoy it as it is an early Holiday present! Please share to alert your family and friends!
– Carolina Weather Authority and Weather Synopsis