While temperatures will remain warm for this time of year, or near average for the South, we will have a major change this week around the 24th. Temperatures will continue to slowly climb until the approaching storm system moves through on Monday, which could bring severe weather to anywhere along the East Coast.
An area of low pressure will develop along the front as it moves east, and will spread rain across the region, some heavy. This low pressure is the system that could bring us severe weather. So until Monday, we can expect, warm, rain, and possible severe storms including the threat for isolated tornadoes.
After this storm system exits into the Atlantic, much cooler air will usher in behind. Nighttime lows will once again dip into the 40s for many, and in the 30s in spots, especially in the mountains. Closer to the coast, expect 50s for lows.
Here are the GEFS ensembles for Wednesday the 25th:
It will remain quite chilly for a while after this area of cooler air moves in. There will not be as much of a temperature rebound this time. Now, behind this shot is another one, and possibly more significant one, which would bring us a cold Halloween. With any of these cool shots, we might be seeing the first flakes in the mountains in the higher elevations. Also, lake-effect could get cranking if there is enough wind behind the fronts, and cold air to cause it to snow. Northwest PA is a common spot for this time of year.
Here are the GEFS ensembles for Halloween, Oct 31:
As you can see, once we get through some warm weather and rain, much cooler/colder air is coming, and some locations could see their first flakes of the season. I am not seeing any signs of a temperature rebound into the beginning of November! This means that the month could start off cold.
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Meteorologist Mike G.
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