The lastet run of the Euro takes the tropical feature from the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula to the southern tip of texas. This is opposite of what the CMC (Canadian) model has. The CMC takesd the tropical feature into the Florida Panhandle, which might not be believable.. Pictured is the Euro solution for Around the 23rd:
And the GFS is starting to come into some agreement with the Euro. Shown is the GFS solution for the 22nd with a weaker storm/depression:
We can now start to see that the agreement between the GFS and Euro take the storm into Mexico/Texas as a weak depression.