Tropical Season off to an Active Start

As we hope to dodge yet another wet weekend in the Southeast, another area of low pressure could be taking shape. I don’t know about you, but I’d like some sunshine and swimming weather. Sure, I like cool and cold too, but not since April. Lol. Anyway we are looking at a 20% chance of something forming in the Gulf later this week and into the weekend.

The official discussion is seen below:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated with 
a surface trough of low pressure interacting with an upper-level 
trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions 
appear only marginally favorable for additional development over the 
next several days as the system meanders over the eastern Gulf of 
Mexico. The system is then forecast to move across the Florida 
Peninsula this weekend and emerge into the southwestern Atlantic 
Ocean by early next week. Regardless of development, the system 
could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the 
Florida Peninsula later this week. Additional information on the 
rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by 
your local National Weather Service forecast office and Excessive 
Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Blake

Most likely, this disturbance will head out to sea. Some coastal locations could get brushed with some outer rain bands, however latest model guidance does not show it being a big deal, and if something forms it will move away from the coast.

Let’s hope for a sunny Saturday!

Author: Michael Griffith

I have had a passion for the weather since a very young age and am a degreed meteorologist. I have a Bachelor of Science from Penn State University and a Master's from Plymouth State University. If you ever see me out and about in the Charlotte, NC area, be sure to say hi!