TROPICS REMAIN ACTIVE
A tropical wave just left the West Coast of Africa, and the NHC as of now gives it a now 40-60% chance of formation. This wave will have to be watched over the next 2 weeks to see what kind of a path it will take. If it strengthens rapidly, then there is a good chance that it will head out to sea. Update: it is now orange as shown below. Track also updated. This will be a cape Verde storm so this could be very dangerous unless it turns North.
NHC formation probability and track:
The NCEP ensembles have a decent likelihood of development with this wave, and the possible paths after it forms are all over the place. Some have it taking a right turn, and others track it into the East Coast. At this point, all we can do is wait and watch. We are not saying where this system will hit or how strong it will be, it’s just simply not possible to know this far out.
NCEP ensembles for tropical cyclone development and tracks:
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