COLD OUTBREAK IS STILL SET TO ARRIVE END OF MONTH
The recent warmth makes one think, where did winter go? The answer is it did not take a permanent vacation, but more like a hiatus. We can say that it will be back, for sure.
And it could come in like a lion, to start February or perhaps a day or two before. There was a sudden stratospheric warming event back on the 17th, and the rule typically is 8-12 days after the elongation of the polar vortex at 30 mb. This is the time it takes for the colder air to reach the surface from above and then spread across North America.
However, the fun doesn’t stop there. Below is another SSW event forecast for the 28th. Threfore, from about the 3rd of February until the 10th, we can expect yet another Arctic blast.
Presently, there is extremely frigid air over Russia. That is certainly a source for a polar plunge in temperatures. It will not take much for this airmass to cross over the Pole and down into Canada, and you know what happens after that.
Images courtesy of www.tropicaltidbits.com
The Euro ensemble wants to break up any above-average temperatures in the east on or around the 25th. Notice the above average temperatures moving into the Plains, which we think is not likely. More reinforcing cold will be coming to end the month. This could even be a Clipper in the Northeast with light snow amounts (1st image). In the second image, Jan 30th is shown featuring another cold shot.
Winter is far from over, and just because computer models place a ridge in the Southeast does not mean that it will always happen, in reality.
The EPO is going negative in early February, as is the AO. When this happened in previous years, the following February was below normal!
Stay tuned for more!
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