As dangerous heat indices take shape this week with values well over 100, some are asking, when will we get some relief? This very hot pattern has some of us thinking that it will be a hot summer, but the early heat does not necessarily mean that will be the case. While the heat will peak on Wednesday and Thursday, I am seeing signs of a cool-down. Yes, we do have to get through MOST of this week first.
The first hint at a cool-down comes from the GEFS ensembles, or the ensembles members of the GFS. Ensemble forecasting can give us a more “level-headed” approach to forecasting since it’s not just one model run, but rather an average of a bunch of different scenarios. This brings more confidence in a forecast. That being said, the GEFS brings us our first wave of relief later this week. Friday the heat should not be quite as noticeable on the GFS:
But the real treat (if you don’t like the heat) comes next week around Wednesday. This will be after a stronger cold front pushes through and drops our temperatures to below normal. This could be a preview for fall or even mid-to-late spring. It will actually be pleasant to be outdoors again.
The Canadian ensembles agree. There will be two pools of cooler air, one to our west and one to our north. There will likely be a severe weather outbreak before either one of these cooler shots of air moves in, both around the 21st, below, and then again next week perhaps on Tuesday. To summarize, there are two rounds of relief from the heat on the way with severe storms possible before the arrival of each one.
Before the arrival of cooler air next week, downpours associated with the severe storms will make for a washout at the beaches. Locations inland could also see some rains that cause some flash flooding.