Currently the disturbance over Hispaniola is disorganized and is not expected to form much over the next 5 days. The Invest is hitting a strong area of upper-shear and could even die out over the next 3 days, however the Southeast US will have increased chances for heavy rain, especially in eastern regions of the Carolinas. This disturbance is only given a mere 10% chance of formation by the NHC over the next 5 days.
However, a wave that we are watching in the South Atlantic now carries a 40% chance of formation over the next 5 days, and could be in the Caribbean in about a week, more specifically located near the Lesser Antilles. This systems carries more of a threat to land than does our Southeast disturbance. Models are indicating that the second disturbance will right-curve out to sea, which is welcome news, however it is still too early to tell. This recurve could come at the last minute as the disturbance approaches the mainland US.
Stay with us here at Carolina Weather Authority/Wx Synopsis as we bring you the latest!