As we embark on the hurricane season of 2018, it is already off to an active start. We just had subtropical storm Alberto over Memorial Day, and now we could be looking at another disturbance in the field around the 10th or 11th. As for now, GEFS ensembles are picking up generally decent agreement on locations of low pressure centers.
The low pressure centers continue to cluster northward over the next day or so below compared to the previous image. This could be another similar track to Alberto, for example. That is only one consideration, however. GEFS for June 12th:
Nonetheless, the pattern so far in the tropics has been Yucatan areas of low pressure that drift into the Gulf. That either could be or might not be telling of the season ahead.
-Mike G.
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