The action will start ramping up from the middle to later this month, as a tropical system will get somewhat organized in the Gulf. There is a lot of environmental shear, so it will not likely organize into anything significant. The GEFS ensembles show an area of low pressure east of Mexico around the 19th or 20th. This general area of low pressure, which could become a tropical depression, is then forecast by this model to drift into Mexico and perhaps the southern tip of Texas.
The European model has a different path for this are of low pressure, which is more northeasterly, perhaps into Florida or the Florida Panhandle. This model image is the forecast for the 21st. Not really looking impressive as far as strength but still something to watch.
Farther East of the Leeward Islands, there could be a bigger anymore significant threat before the 23rd. European probabilities have a high likelihood for an area of formation. In my opinion, this will be much more worth watching than the Gulf system.
Here comes the goodies. This is the European model, showing mean sea level pressure contours and 850 millibar vorticity. The red and orange bullseyes are concentrated areas of low pressure. Notice the area in the Gulf. The Euro wants to develop a tropical storm and take it into North Florida. But also of interest, please note the smaller orange/red dot in the Southern Atlantic. This coincides with the probability map above. That wave could be something big to watch if it can develop. If you have a cruise anytime this month, please watch the tropics closely and consider rescheduling.
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