Will Summer be a Scorcher This Year?

As of June 1st, we are now in meteorological summer. This continues until August 31st. So what can we expect? If we examine ENSO conditions, they are pretty much neutral and should remain that way through the rest of this summer. What we can take away from that is that ENSO should have little impact on our summer this year. There will be other players, especially sea-surface temperatures.

A cooler than usual Atlantic basin should keep our tropical season to a minimum this year, at least for powerful hurricanes. Last season that water was warm, hence our active tropical season. There is a warmer pool of water in contrast however across the mid latitudes of the Atlantic. This could set up a Bermuda high for a large part of the summer, keeping us toasty here in the East.

SST Anomaly courtesy of NOAA/NESDIS

The CFS v2 for June-July-August is indicating that Texas and the Midwest will be the hot spots this summer, including the western US. We could see ridges of high pressure that shift between Texas and the western US. In turn, this would keep us around seasonable in the East, with refreshing cool fronts on occasion, with the catch being severe weather.

Summer forecast temps provided by NCEP

Models continue to show support for a hot summer in the Midwest and Plains, and also out West. The NMME is indicating areas of above-normal temperatures in these locations. The only locations that may be able to escape the extreme heat over the next month is here in the East!

A seasonable summer is most likely in the East with perhaps nice shots of cooler air for the Northeast. Some of this cooler air will make it into the Southeast on occasion. Again, the places that will feel the heat this summer should be in the Plains, Midwest, and out West.

NOAA’s summer outlook is saying the heat is on for everyone, except for the Upper Midwest where temperatures are expected to be seasonable. We think that most of the East will be close to seasonable, especially after all the rainfall in May keeping soil temperatures down. The biggest threat for heat this summer will be across the western half of the US.

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Author: Michael Griffith

I have had a passion for the weather since a very young age and am a degreed meteorologist. I have a Bachelor of Science from Penn State University and a Master's from Plymouth State University. If you ever see me out and about in the Charlotte, NC area, be sure to say hi!