When we can’t get good model agreement, typically that is grounds for a low-confidence forecast. When confidence is low, sometimes the scenario does not unfoldRead More

Extremely dangerous Hurricane Irma is in the Caribbean currently wreaking havoc with Cuba, and then will make a northward turn Saturday into Sunday. The forecastRead More

Here is one scenario I am seeing for the path of Irma. Another scenario will shift over east with time. Anywhere along the Southeast CoastRead More

Hello members, Here is my current thinking on the forecast track for Irma. The nice cool autumn airmass on top of us right now willRead More

We are all on pins and needles down here in the South as to where Irma will go and what she will do. Nobody canRead More

Hi Members, Hope nobody is freaking out just yet. I does look like Miami and South Florida will be spared from the worst, but nowRead More

As promised, here is the comparison between the two. The GEFS ensembles, in my opinion, are going to do this forecast more justice than theRead More

Latest Euro is showing an impact with Florida, then moves just off the Florida coast and strengthens. Irma then makes landfall somewhere in South CarolinaRead More